Must-Bookmark: Core Poker Probability Cheat Sheet (10-Minute Memorization Guide)
Demystifying hand equity and Expected Value (EV) to eliminate guesswork at the tables.
Why math comes first
Long-term profit is the sum of thousands of +EV decisions, not one lucky hand. Memorize the core matchups and draw odds until they become instinct.
The Rule of 2 and 4
With one street to come, multiply outs by 2; with two streets, multiply by 4. Nine flush outs: about 19% on the turn, about 35% from flop to river.
Key Preflop Matchups
| 对位 | 前方胜率 | 后方胜率 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 82.2% | 17.8% | 翻前最大冤家牌 |
| AA vs QQ | 82.5% | 17.5% | |
| AKs vs QQ | 46.4% | 53.6% | 接近抛硬币，位置与赔率决定 EV |
| AKo vs JJ | 43.1% | 56.9% | |
| AKs vs 22 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 同花高张对小对子接近五五开 |
| KK vs QQ | 82.7% | 17.3% |
Flop Draw Matrix
| 听牌类型 | Outs | Flop→Turn | Turn→River | Flop→River |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 同花听牌 | 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 34.9% |
| 两头顺听牌 | 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 卡顺听牌 | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 两对→葫芦 | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 一对→三条/两对 | 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% |
| 一对→三条 | 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
Rule of 2 and 4：只剩一条街时 Outs×2 估算胜率；翻牌还有两条街时 Outs×4。例如 9 张同花 outs：转牌约 9×2=18%（实际 19.1%），翻牌到河牌约 9×4=36%（实际 34.9%），足够实战快速决策。
EV 快速判断：跟注所需胜率 = 跟注额 ÷（底池+跟注额）。底池 100、对手下注 50，你跟 50 需要 50÷150=33.3%；同花听牌翻牌到河牌 34.9% 勉强达标，还要考虑隐含赔率与对手范围，不能机械跟注。
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